USA
Boom or bubble?
Despite the slight monetary policy headwind, the US economy is experiencing moderate growth. The massive investments in AI and its infrastructure will continue to have a positive impact on economic growth. We are in the transition to the second half of this bull market. Historically, this is characterized by further price potential but also rising volatility.
According to preliminary calculations, the S&P Global US Composite PMI (purchasing managers' index for the services and manufacturing sectors) rose by 0.2 points month-on-month to 54.8 points in November 2025. This also exceeded expectations of 54.5 points and the figures suggest robust economic development in 6 months' time.
The data fog is gradually lifting
The economic data not published during the longest shutdown to date (43 days) will now be delivered step by step after the end of the shutdown. A moderate 119,000 new non-farm jobs were created in September, which was well above the forecast of 53,000 new jobs. Unemployment stood at a moderate 4.40% in September (0.1% above the previous month and expectations).
Probability of a further interest rate cut in December falls
Inflation stood at 3.00% in September (+0.10% compared to the previous month but 0.10% below expectations) and core inflation at 3.00% (-0.1% compared to the previous month and expectations). The inflation rate thus appears to be consolidating around the 3.00% mark. However, this figure is still clearly above the Fed's target range of 2.00%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently expressed more caution about a further rate cut at the next meeting on December 10, which is why only 1/3 of market participants now expect a rate cut.
Solid earnings - slightly lower valuation
The earnings of S&P 500 companies clearly exceeded forecasts with an increase of 13.0% in the third quarter. An increase of +11.0% is expected for the whole of 2025 and +10,0% for next year. The impressive stock market valuation is therefore supported by solid earnings growth. Earnings growth is not only driven by the technology sector, but increasingly also by the broader market, for which the increased use of AI in corporate processes and the elimination of customs uncertainties are beginning to pay off. With a price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 of 21.5 (based on analysts' earnings estimates for the next 12 months), the market valuation has actually fallen slightly in recent months, but remains above the 5 and 10-year averages of 20.0 and 18.7 respectively.
GDP2025 (IMF): +2.10% (E)
Inflation2025 (IMF): +3.00% (E)
Fed Fund Rate: +3.75-4.00%
Sources: Trading Economics, FuW, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statista, IMF, FMOC
As of: 24.11.2025