China
Export engine running, domestic market cools down
According to all that is known so far, the next five-year plan (2026-2030) will focus even more strongly on self-sufficiency and the expansion of production capacities. Sectors such as the automotive industry, mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, specialty chemicals, railroad technology, photovoltaics and wind energy are already well advanced in this respect. At the same time, future technologies such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology and robotics are increasingly coming to the fore. The Chinese stock market offers risk-tolerant investors attractive investment opportunities.
The Chinese economy grew more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with a slight acceleration quarter-on-quarter. However, the picture behind the figures shows a certain differentiation: domestic demand is weakening, which is reflected in moderate sales growth in the retail sector, among other things. Investment activity has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, which is why the government recently released the unused bond quota for local governments - a signal that Beijing wants to actively combat investment fatigue. On the other hand, export demand remains robust. While exports to the US fell sharply, exports to other regions of the world rose significantly.
Inflationary trends present a similarly mixed picture: consumer prices fell slightly quarter-on-quarter, particularly due to base effects in the food sector, while the core rate excluding volatile components rose moderately. Overall, inflationary pressure remains low and the price data clearly reflects the weakness in demand. The Chinese economy continues to show solid overall strength, supported by resilient export demand. However, domestic economic weaknesses and a low propensity to invest are dampening growth potential, while inflationary pressure remains moderate. Growth of around 5,0% is now expected for the year as a whole and significantly lower next year.
IMF forecasts
GDP 2025 4.80%
Inflation 2025 0.00%
Shibor 1.57%
Status: 24.11.2025