The impact of tariffs on the stock market is less significant, as many listed Swiss companies are globally diversified and produce directly in the target markets. Only a small proportion of 1-2.00% of SMI companies' turnover is directly affected. Valuations can be considered fair overall, and dividend yields of over 3.00% give the market a certain attractiveness. Opportunities are offered in particular by quality and service stocks as well as high-dividend stocks.
The new US tariffs of 39.00% affect individual goods exports, while services and key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and gold are exempt. The majority of exports remain unaffected by this measure, and three quarters of Swiss value added is generated in the services sector anyway. The overall economic consequences are therefore limited. According to UBS forecasts, GDP is expected to grow by around 1.00% in 2025, while SECO has slightly higher expectations. A recession is considered unlikely, even if customs duties, the strong franc and weak foreign demand dampen growth. Inflation and the franc remain stable, meaning that the SNB is not expected to make any changes to its interest rate policy.
SECO economic forecasts
GDP 2025 1.30%
Inflation 2025 0.10%
Current key interest rate 0.00%
Dino Marcesini, Partner
Sources: Chefinvest, ZKB, UBS
As of: 15.09.2025
Europe is on a path of slow but steady recovery. A market environment with moderate growth, attractive valuations and stable dividend yields is opening up for investors. A selective investment policy - with a focus on quality companies, high-dividend stocks and sectors that benefit from structural investments - looks particularly promising over the next 12 months.
The European economy is currently stable, albeit with only moderate growth. GDP growth of around 1.00-1.10% is expected in the EU and just below that in the eurozone in 2025, before accelerating towards 1.50% in 2026. Consumption is slowly recovering, investments in digitalization and energy are having a supportive effect and there are signs of a cautious easing of interest rates. Inflation has peaked, averaging just over 2.00% in 2025 and is likely to level off further in 2026. The ECB remains cautious and is keeping key interest rates high for the time being, but is signaling the possibility of initial cuts towards the end of 2025, which should ease the environment for the markets.
Corporate earnings were slightly positive in the second quarter of 2025, but are expected to stagnate or decline slightly for the year as a whole. A broader recovery is not expected until 2026. Revenue growth is subdued, making efficiency gains more important. In terms of valuation, Europe remains attractive: with a price/earnings ratio of around 15x and average dividend yields of over 3.00%, European equities offer a significant discount compared to the US and at the same time a solid buffer. Political uncertainties such as trade conflicts or high national debt are a burden, but investment programs in energy independence, infrastructure and technology have a positive impact on the future.
Maria Albericci, Chairman
As at: 16.9.2025
Sources: EU Commission, Reuters, Goldman Sachs, RBC Wealth Management
We continue to expect a soft landing for the US economy and a slight decline in inflation rates. AI-driven productivity increases in companies will continue to have a positive impact on their earnings reports. Due to the impressive valuation, we do not expect any further significant price increases until the end of the year, although we see the most potential in small and mid-caps.
The S&P Global US Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index for the services and manufacturing sectors) for August 2025 signaled robust economic development in 6 months with a value of 54.6 points. Of particular interest in this leading indicator is the fact that the value for the manufacturing sector also improved sharply to 53.3 points (+3.1 points compared to July).
Cooling of the labor market spurs interest rate cut fantasies
In contrast, only 22,000 new non-farm jobs were created in August (53,000 jobs lower than expected). The figures from May to July were also revised downwards. Unemployment rose to 4.30% in August (+0.10% compared to the previous month). This means that the labor market is slowly cooling down. The stock markets received this news positively, as it increases the likelihood that the Fed will reduce the short-term interest rate (Fed Fund Rate) even further this year after the cut of 0.25% on 17.9.25, thus continuing the rate cut cycle after a pause of several months.
Dilemma of tough inflation
Inflation stood at 2.90% in August (+0.20% compared to the previous month) and core inflation at 3.10% (unchanged compared to the previous month). Inflation is thus moving away from the Fed's target range (2.00%). However, as the Fed's mandate is not only price stability but also full employment, two further rate cuts of 0.25% each to a target range of 3.75 - 4.00% remain possible after the September meeting. Of course, it is important that inflation rates do not rise further in the coming months.
Solid earnings
81.00% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations in the second quarter of 2025. Overall, earnings per share increased by 11.70%. Analysts' forecasts for the coming quarters are either in the high single-digit range (3Q) or low double-digit range (4Q and 1Q26). It seems that the increased use of AI is starting to pay off for companies. However, with a price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 of 22.5 (based on analysts' earnings estimates for the next 12 months), this positive outlook is now well reflected.
GDP2025 (IMF): +1.80% (E)
Inflation2025 (IMF): +3.00% (E)
Fed Fund Rate: +4.00-4.25%
Dr. Patrick Huser, CEO
Status: 18.09.2025
Sources: Trading Economics, FuW, USBureau of Labor Statistics, Statista, IMF, FMOC
The current economic data is having a dampening effect on the short-term earnings prospects of Chinese companies. Structural negative factors such as the real estate crisis and the subdued investment climate are exacerbating the resulting uncertainty. However, it can be assumed that the potential of individual sectors such as technology, consumption and renewable energies will remain intact in the medium term. This is due to the gradual expansion of support measures by the government. Investors are therefore advised to adopt a selective positioning with a focus on technology companies and structural growth themes.
After a strong first half of the year, the latest data shows clear signs of a slowdown: industrial production and retail sales were weaker in the summer, and consumer momentum has slowed.Although pull-forward effects in trade due to the extended tariff moratorium with the US are providing short-term support, they are likely to subside in the fall. Investment in particular is a cause for concern. Fixed asset investment is currently only growing by 0.50%, which is the lowest level since the pandemic. Private investment is also declining. The real estate sector is also affected by the impact of the conflict. The Chinese economy has therefore lost momentum. However, it can be assumed that the Chinese government will create an additional incentive for local governments towards the end of the year in order to stimulate investment activity.
IMF forecasts
GDP 2025 4.80%
Inflation 2025 0.00%
Shibor 1.55%
Dino Marcesini, Partner
Sources: Chefinvest, ZKB, IMF
As of: 15.09.2025
Neutral, for investors this means: Japan remains a market with structural tailwinds from reforms, competitiveness and rising wages, but at the same time with increased volatility due to exchange rate movements and the monetary policy turnaround.
Japan's economy is proving more robust than expected. GDP grew by around 0.5% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, driven by consumption and investment. This reinforces the impression that the long-weakening domestic economy is stabilizing.
Inflation remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Wholesale prices in particular are rising noticeably, while wage increases are cushioning some of the price pressure. The decisive factor remains whether the persistently higher wages can generate self-sustaining inflationary momentum.
The BoJ is currently holding the key interest rate at 0.5%, but is signaling a cautious normalization. Economists expect a further interest rate hike by the end of the year. However, the exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy will be gradual so as not to jeopardize the upswing.
The yen remains susceptible to fluctuations: continued weakness supports exporters but increases import inflation. Global trade conflicts, a possible slowdown in US demand and domestic political uncertainties represent key risks.
Expected GDP 2025 0.6%
Expected inflation 2025 1.7
Japanese key interest rate 0.50%
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: OECD, Bank of Japan and IMF
Status:12.09.2025
USA: Earnings support share prices, but the high dependence on the "Magnificent 7" harbors cluster risks (DB). Recommendation: Broader diversification with a focus on quality companies beyond the tech giants. Opportunistic small caps and homebuilders, but cautious due to volatility risks (Citi). Europe: Use valuation discount, selectively invest in defensive quality stocks (healthcare, consumer, luxury). Avoid banks. Emerging markets: Tactically overweight - especially China, India, Brazil, flanked by Nikkei and Hang Seng. Dynamic, but selective. Sectors: Technology and consumption as structural winners. Hedging: Gold as a strategic addition (DB, Citi).
The global stock markets have risen sharply: S&P 500 +12.50%, Nasdaq +15.60%, DAX +19.00%, ATX +26.00% and Hang Seng +31.80%. Anyone who has only studied the price charts in Zurich or Vaduz in recent months might think that risk is a purely theoretical category.
The Deutsche Bank speaks of a "transition from skepticism to optimism" - which feels quite comfortable for investors at Zurich's Bellevue or Vaduz's Städle. However, Citi warns that the persistently low volatility has pushed systematic investors into a kind of carelessness that is more reminiscent of Lake Zurich on a windless Sunday: calm until the first motorboat comes by.
USA:Earnings strength, tech dominance and fragile market breadth
The USA remains the leading market, driven by strong earnings growth (S&P-500-EPS 2025e: USD 260). The "Magnificent 7" now account for 35.00% of the S&P-500 weighting. DB sees this as a serious concentration risk - or, to put it in local terms: a bit like Zurich's Bellevue without the side streets. Citi warns that 94 trading days without a decline >2.00% paints a deceptive picture. Volatility control and risk parity strategies have greatly increased their exposure. If volatility returns, there is a risk of disproportionate sell-offs.
Chefinvest assessment:
Europe: Valuation appeal despite political burdens
European equities are attractively valued, offer solid dividends and would actually be set in a portfolio - if it weren't for the political uncertainties in France and Germany. DB calls them "fundamentally attractive, but politically burdened". Citi points to tariff and inflation risks that are squeezing margins. Or in other words: Europe looks like an elegant old apartment in a good location - cheap to buy, but the renovation costs (politics) should not be underestimated.
Chefinvest assessment:
Emerging Markets & Asia: Rise to favorite
The UBS has upgraded EM equities from "Neutral" to "Overweight". Drivers are:
Chefinvest assessment:
Citi reminds us dryly: US tariffs could cause plenty of unrest until 2026. Or, to put it in British terms, mind the gap...
Rico Albericci, CEFA
Sources: Citi Wealth, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Chefinvest, Marketmap
As of 09/16/2025
Government bonds are currently once again a solid core building block for stability in bond portfolios. High-yield bonds will continue to offer attractive yield opportunities in 2025. However, investors should carefully consider the potential risks - such as a possible widening of spreads and macroeconomic uncertainties. Targeted security selection, broad diversification and active management are crucial. We therefore recommend that this asset class should preferably be included in the portfolio via actively managed funds in order to manage risks effectively. Investment-grade bonds provide a reliable source of income via the carry and are particularly suitable for tactically extending the duration in the portfolio. We currently advise against actively building up positions in emerging market bonds. For investors with an appetite for risk, it makes sense to invest in broadly diversified ETFs or funds.
Government bonds
Government bond yields reflect the advanced stage of the interest rate cycle in the major industrialized countries. Both the Fed and the ECB have initiated the first interest rate cuts, but future developments remain heavily dependent on the course of inflation. In the USA, yields on ten-year Treasuries are in the range of 3.8% to 4.2% and therefore offer an attractive basis for the gradual reconstruction of duration, particularly against the backdrop of increased recession risks. In Europe, Bunds and OATs are also firmer, while the peripheral countries offer moderate spread opportunities but are fraught with political uncertainty. The Swiss Confederation remains a defensive anchor in the portfolio, even if the low yields and the strength of the franc limit the advantage.
Investment grade bonds (IG)
The market for investment grade bonds remains characterized by narrow spreads, which are trading near multi-year lows. This reflects robust corporate balance sheets, high liquidity buffers and solid fundamentals overall. In Europe, attractive all-in yields of two to four percent are available, while US bonds offer slightly higher yields, albeit with comparably narrower risk premiums. The refinancing risk in this segment is manageable, even if profit revisions in the course of an economic downturn cannot be ruled out. Against this backdrop, IG bonds offer a stable source of income via the carry and are suitable for tactically extending the duration in the portfolio.
High-yield bonds (HY)
The high-yield segment has recovered strongly in recent quarters and is currently trading at comparatively narrow spreads. This reduces the risk buffer, meaning that investments can only be justified selectively. Although many issuers still have solid liquidity positions, default rates are rising, particularly in the CCC segment. Regionally, the US market offers a slightly better depth of liquidity, while Europe can score points with an overall more defensive issuer structure, but reacts more sensitively to interest rates. Yields of between six and eight percent are generally achievable, but BB and selected B securities appear particularly interesting on a risk-adjusted basis.
Emerging markets bonds (EM)
The picture in the area of emerging market bonds is divided. Bonds in local currency benefit from the fact that many central banks in the emerging markets have already initiated the interest rate reduction cycle earlier than the industrialized countries, offering investors attractive real yields. Latin America in particular, such as Brazil and Mexico, is seeing high real interest rates and progress in structural reforms. In Asia, fundamentals are more stable overall, but yields are somewhat lower. In the hard currency segment, yields of between five and seven percent remain interesting, although the trend is heavily dependent on the strength of the dollar. Risks also arise from geopolitical tensions and the dependence of many countries on commodity prices. should.
Mimi Haas, Lic.rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: MarketMap, Bloomberg and DWS
EUR/USD - "Please keep your distance" The euro and the dollar are currently dancing on two different stages: the ECB with the soft baton of interest rate cuts, the Fed with stoic composure and folded arms. In the short term, the pair will remain as moody as a summer in the mountains, but in the long term the euro should gain a little momentum. EUR/CHF - "Swiss-style stability" The franc - as reliable as Swiss clockwork and as popular as a safe haven in stormy seas. The SNB has lowered interest rates to ease the worry lines on the face of the export industry. Those seeking shelter in times of crisis usually end up in Zurich rather than Nice. USD/CHF - "The tightrope walk" The Fed and SNB are engaged in a trial of strength here. As long as the Fed maintains its tough stance, the dollar looks solid - but if the markets start to wobble, the franc takes off its hat with British composure and wins. Conclusion: as volatile as the stock market, but with a slight tilt towards the franc.
EUR/USD (14.09.2025: 1.17)
The euro against the US dollar is currently caught between monetary policy divergence and growth momentum. While the ECB has already made its first interest rate cuts due to declining inflation, signaling a loose monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve continues to show restraint. The more robust US economy, supported by a stable labor market and consumption, is giving the dollar structural strength. In the medium to long term, however, a closing interest rate differential suggests a slight recovery of the euro. In the short term, the pair remains strongly data-driven and vulnerable to geopolitical risks and US politics.
Conclusion: We continue to see the EUR strengthening.
EUR/CHF (14.09.2025: 0.93)
The euro/Swiss franc currency pair is significantly influenced by the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and its exchange rate interventions. The SNB has started to cut interest rates as inflation in Switzerland is clearly under control. This has weakened the franc somewhat, which benefits the export industry. Nevertheless, the franc remains in high demand as a safe haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty. In the medium to long term, a sideways movement or slight franc strength can therefore be expected, as capital flows tend to move back into the CHF in phases of heightened uncertainty.
Conclusion: In the medium to long term, a sideways movement or slight franc strength can therefore be expected, as capital flows tend to move back into the CHF in phases of heightened uncertainty.
USD/CHF (14.09.2025: 0.80)
The US dollar against the Swiss franc reflects both the interest rate differential between the Fed and the SNB and risk perceptions on the markets. The current higher US interest rates are supporting the dollar, while the franc is sought after as a safe haven currency in phases of geopolitical tensions. The trend therefore remains volatile with a slight tendency towards dollar strength as long as the Fed maintains its more restrictive stance. However, should there be a significant tightening of risk on the markets, the franc should clearly gain strength again.
Conclusion: Volatility remains in this currency pair with a slight upward trend for the Swiss franc.
Mimi Haas, Lic.rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: MarketMap and Bloomberg
Due to the continuing trend towards oversupply, we expect the WTI oil price to remain within a range of USD 55 to 75 per barrel in the coming months.
The WTI oil price has moved sideways in a price range of USD 64 to 74 per barrel over the past two months.
OPEC is forecasting demand growth of 1.3 million barrels of oil per day in 2025 (+1.4 million in 2026), with most of the increase in demand coming from non-OECD countries. OPEC is forecasting average global oil demand and global oil supply of around 105 million barrels per day for 2025. However, it can be assumed that individual members of OPEC + will produce more than their official quota. In addition, the production reserves of certain countries (above all Saudi Arabia) totaling several million barrels per day ensure security of supply. We consider it unlikely that China and India will join the Western sanctions on Russian oil due to the high US tariffs.
Dr. Patrick Huser, CEO
Sources: OPEC, FuW, MarketMap,International Energy Agency (IEA)
As of: 16.09.2025
Neutral. In our view, gold remains an important component in asset allocation. It offers protection in uncertain times, stabilizes portfolios and benefits from the trends mentioned above. A gold allocation in the mid-single-digit percentage range (e.g. 3-7% of total assets) is ideal, especially for investors with an interest in long-term value preservation.
Gold is one of the most successful asset classes in 2025. Since the beginning of the year, the price has risen, clearly outperforming equities, bonds, major currencies and even Bitcoin. We expect this trend to continue.
Why we expect gold prices to rise:
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer. pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: Degussa, Reuters and Financial Times.
As of: 12.09.2025
United Kingdom
empty