The tariff reduction will have a noticeably positive impact on the Swiss export economy, although the economic environment is still seen as a challenge. The domestic economy is stabilizing, but only moderate growth is expected for 2026. The Swiss equity market has an average valuation in historical terms and offers an attractive dividend yield of 3.00 %.
In recent months, the Swiss economy has been heavily influenced by the tariff conflict with the USA. The unexpectedly introduced import tariffs of 39% led to a noticeable burden on the export industry. The situation eased considerably in November: the USA reduced the rate to 15 %. This led to relief on the markets, a strengthening of the Swiss franc and an improvement in the competitive position of export-oriented industries. Companies in the luxury goods, medical technology and capital goods sectors, which generate high US sales with added value in Switzerland, will benefit particularly from this development.
Gross domestic product shrank significantly by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2025. This was due to declining figures in the industrial sector, negative net exports and subdued investment activity. Weak demand from key sales markets such as the EU and China and the elimination of earlier pull-forward effects are also having an impact.
The forecasts for 2026 are subdued, albeit without a recession scenario. Private consumption remains stable thanks to low inflation and population growth, and the service sector is also proving resilient. In addition, construction activity is expected to gradually recover due to low interest rates.
SECO economic forecasts
GDP 2025 1.30%
Inflation 2025 0.20%
Leading interest rate 0.00%
Sources: Chefinvest, ZKB, SECO
As of: 24.11.2025
The financial markets are currently sending out positive signals for the economic outlook. The European economy is benefiting from low interest rates and increasing fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure. We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave its deposit rate unchanged until 2026. Due to the attractive valuation and the positive and robust earnings prospects, we remain positive about the European equity market.
In the third quarter of 2025, gross domestic product (GDP) in the eurozone increased by 0.2%, slightly more than expected. The eurozone economy was able to absorb the impact of US tariffs thanks to solid domestic demand. US tariffs are estimated to have depressed economic growth by 0.5% this year. At country level, growth momentum varied greatly, as in the previous quarters. While Spain's (+0.7% Q/Q) and France's (+0.5% Q/Q) growth was above average, the German and Italian economies stagnated. These 2 countries are more dependent on trade with the US.
Significant events of the last 3 months
- Easing of global tariffs, but trade risks remain
- Fall in energy prices supports consumers
- More stable financing conditions after the latest interest rate cuts
The European economy remains on a solid economic path and for the 4th quarter of 2025, initial leading indicators show that the economy will continue to grow. The first early indicators for the fourth quarter of 2025 show slight growth momentum in the service sector, while industry is expected to remain stable. The service sector remains the driving force.
In its autumn forecast, the European Commission expects real GDP in the European Union (EU) to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 2026, rising to 1.5% in 2027. In the eurozone, they expect an increase of 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.
Inflation will continue to fall and is expected to average 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. A slight increase to 1.9% is expected in 2027.
The European labor market remains surprisingly robust, as confirmed by low unemployment rates and stable wages. However, the labor market has cooled and employment growth is low. The unemployment rate in Europe in September 2025 is 6.0% in the EU and 6.3% in the euro area.
GDP growth 2025 + 1.4% (E)
EU inflation 2025 + 2.1% (E)
Current 3-month Euribor + 2.1%
The hopes of the European economy are pinned on fiscal policy and the fact that extensive investment will stimulate the economy. The EU Commission has already begun to tackle reforms (e.g. reducing bureaucracy, expanding defense) in order to improve competitiveness and boost low production growth. The investments in defense decided this year as well as Germany's large fiscal package will boost the economy in Europe.
Daniel Beck, Member of the Executive Board
Sources: European Commission, Statista, HCOB, S&P Global
As at: 24.11.2025
Despite the slight monetary policy headwind, the US economy is experiencing moderate growth. The massive investments in AI and its infrastructure will continue to have a positive impact on economic growth. We are in the transition to the second half of this bull market. Historically, this is characterized by further price potential but also rising volatility.
According to preliminary calculations, the S&P Global US Composite PMI (purchasing managers' index for the services and manufacturing sectors) rose by 0.2 points month-on-month to 54.8 points in November 2025. This also exceeded expectations of 54.5 points and the figures suggest robust economic development in 6 months' time.
The economic data not published during the longest shutdown to date (43 days) will now be delivered step by step after the end of the shutdown. A moderate 119,000 new non-farm jobs were created in September, which was well above the forecast of 53,000 new jobs. Unemployment stood at a moderate 4.40% in September (0.1% above the previous month and expectations).
Inflation stood at 3.00% in September (+0.10% compared to the previous month but 0.10% below expectations) and core inflation at 3.00% (-0.1% compared to the previous month and expectations). The inflation rate thus appears to be consolidating around the 3.00% mark. However, this figure is still clearly above the Fed's target range of 2.00%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently expressed more caution about a further rate cut at the next meeting on December 10, which is why only 1/3 of market participants now expect a rate cut.
The earnings of S&P 500 companies clearly exceeded forecasts with an increase of 13.0% in the third quarter. An increase of +11.0% is expected for the whole of 2025 and +10,0% for next year. The impressive stock market valuation is therefore supported by solid earnings growth. Earnings growth is not only driven by the technology sector, but increasingly also by the broader market, for which the increased use of AI in corporate processes and the elimination of customs uncertainties are beginning to pay off. With a price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 of 21.5 (based on analysts' earnings estimates for the next 12 months), the market valuation has actually fallen slightly in recent months, but remains above the 5 and 10-year averages of 20.0 and 18.7 respectively.
GDP2025 (IMF): +2.10% (E)
Inflation2025 (IMF): +3.00% (E)
Fed Fund Rate: +3.75-4.00%
Sources: Trading Economics, FuW, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statista, IMF, FMOC
As of: 24.11.2025
According to all that is known so far, the next five-year plan (2026-2030) will focus even more strongly on self-sufficiency and the expansion of production capacities. Sectors such as the automotive industry, mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, specialty chemicals, railroad technology, photovoltaics and wind energy are already well advanced in this respect. At the same time, future technologies such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology and robotics are increasingly coming to the fore. The Chinese stock market offers risk-tolerant investors attractive investment opportunities.
The Chinese economy grew more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with a slight acceleration quarter-on-quarter. However, the picture behind the figures shows a certain differentiation: domestic demand is weakening, which is reflected in moderate sales growth in the retail sector, among other things. Investment activity has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, which is why the government recently released the unused bond quota for local governments - a signal that Beijing wants to actively combat investment fatigue. On the other hand, export demand remains robust. While exports to the US fell sharply, exports to other regions of the world rose significantly.
Inflationary trends present a similarly mixed picture: consumer prices fell slightly quarter-on-quarter, particularly due to base effects in the food sector, while the core rate excluding volatile components rose moderately. Overall, inflationary pressure remains low and the price data clearly reflects the weakness in demand. The Chinese economy continues to show solid overall strength, supported by resilient export demand. However, domestic economic weaknesses and a low propensity to invest are dampening growth potential, while inflationary pressure remains moderate. Growth of around 5,0% is now expected for the year as a whole and significantly lower next year.
IMF forecasts
GDP 2025 4.80%
Inflation 2025 0.00%
Shibor 1.57%
Status: 24.11.2025
Japan offers interesting opportunities – particularly in the export-oriented sector, given the favourable currency environment – but at the same time volatility is increasing due to currency and interest rate fluctuations and fiscal uncertainty. A key decision-making factor will be how quickly and strongly monetary policy is normalised without overburdening the fragile domestic situation. Japan belongs in a diversified portfolio as an investment.
Japan is currently facing a complex mix of strong fiscal stimulus, currency pressure and a balancing act in terms of monetary policy. At the beginning of November, the new government under Sanae Takaichi approved a huge economic stimulus package worth around 21.3 trillion yen (≈ US$ 135 billion) with the aim of boosting economic growth and cushioning the rising cost of living. At the same time, the yen weakened noticeably, which could support exports - but at the same time harbors import and inflation risks.
Bank of Japan CEO Kazuo Ueda emphasized in a meeting with the government that although monetary policy normalization is in sight, it must be "gradual and data-dependent" - especially in light of the fact that Japan has not yet achieved sustainable, wage-driven inflation. In addition, the government and central bank have jointly stated that they are monitoring the markets with a "strong sense of urgency", particularly given the weakness of the yen and a restrictive global environment.
Macroeconomically, the economy continues to show signs of a slowdown: The build-up of domestic demand remains fragile and dependence on external stimuli is growing. Imported inflation due to the weaker yen and fiscal burdens from the large stimulus program are additional risk factors.
Expected GDP 2026 0.6%
Expected inflation 2026 1.7%
Japanese key interest rate 0.81%
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: OECD, Bank of Japan and IMF
Status:24.11.2025
The in-house CAIB - Chefinvest Equity Index Barometer - confirms the positive underlying tone. It shows a 55% probability of a positive stock market result for the coming month and even a 60% chance that the markets will rise over the next twelve months. The statistical side of the capital markets thus confirms what the fundamental data already indicate. For investors, this means - in the spirit of Swiss sobriety - that a globally diversified and high-quality equity strategy will continue to be the most rational positioning in the coming year. Europe no longer deserves the role of a polite supporting actor, but rather an active weighting in the portfolio. The data speaks for this. Or, in short: keep calm - and allocate intelligently.
The global economy is increasingly showing what investors call a "steady hand": ZKB's global leading indicator reaches its highest level in over a year - and not thanks to a single country, but to improved data from almost all regions. Citi confirms the picture: global data surprises have been rising for months, most recently to the highest level since April 2024.
While some comment that central banks have "won the battle against inflation", the reality is more sober - but with positive trends. ZKB documents that five times more interest rate cuts than interest rate hikes were made worldwide in 2025. Deutsche Bank specifies the decisive background to this: eurozone inflation is now at 2.1%, the unemployment rate is a solid 6.4%, while wages are rising by almost 5%, thus ensuring stable domestic demand. The Fed, always keen not to appear too relaxed, lowered its key interest rate to four percent in October.
Although the temporary US data freeze caused short-term nervousness, Citi confirms that the markets were entertained rather than unsettled. The structural message remains: The economy is stabilizing and monetary policy has decided to at least no longer slow down this stabilization. This is rarely bad news for equities.
The United States remains the backbone of the global equity markets - not because of eccentric central bank rhetoric, but because of solid business realities. ZKB shows that S&P 500 earnings rose by over thirteen percent in the third quarter, rather than the expected eight percent. Deutsche Bank adds that the S&P 500 gained 2.3 percent in October and the NASDAQ just under five percent. Citi observes that despite volatile interest rate fantasies, investors react more strongly to real corporate figures than to political or statistical distractions. Even capacity utilization remains stable above 75 percent - no sign of recession, and a sign that the economy is more resilient than some forecasts.
Europe is suddenly presenting itself as a market that is no longer talked about out of sheer politeness. UBS had classified the region as attractive early on, but this assessment is now receiving unusually prominent support. ZKB points to the significant rise in purchasing managers' indices. The composite PMI for the eurozone has been climbing for months and is now back above the 51-point threshold - which corresponds exactly to the level that correlated closely with positive returns on European equities in the past. The valuation argument can no longer be ignored either: ZKB speaks of the most attractive valuation compared to the major economic blocs, with robust earnings prospects at the same time.
Deutsche Bank brings in the macroeconomic component: With 2.1% inflation, 6.4%unemployment and stable government bond yields, Europe is experiencing an environment that rarely occurs at the same time - and which is already visible in share prices. Risk premiums in the periphery have been shrinking significantly since 2022, which has noticeably eased financing costs for companies. Finally, Citi shows why Europe is benefiting particularly strongly from the global environment: Global trade is growing by more than three percent despite geopolitical noise, and European industrial groups traditionally respond to this momentum with a mixture of operational leverage and - forgive the expression - pleasantly price-stable demand.
China remains a market that is irritating in the short term, but strategically convincing in the long term. Citi points out that the MSCI China has shifted significantly towards technology-oriented business models over the last ten years: The tech share has risen from 13 to 25% . Earnings revisions in IT, communication services and financials have been improving for months - a leading indicator that professional investors are following closely. UBS continues to see Chinese technology stocks as "Most Attractive", and the capital inflows of almost USD 50 billion into China-focused emerging market funds underline the fact that institutional investors have by no means written off the region. Strong trends are evident in Asia as a whole: Deutsche Bank notes that the MSCI Asia ex Japan has gained over 30% in USD and 18% in CHF this year - driven by the semiconductor industry, automation and the high regional momentum.
The structural megatrend of artificial intelligence continues to dominate capital flows. ZKB expects Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft alone to invest over 300 billion US dollars in AI infrastructure by 2025 - a level that was previously reserved for an entire industry rather than four companies. UBS assumes that global AI investments will reach around 1.3 trillion dollars annually by 2030 - a figure that commands the respect of even sophisticated investors.
Citi describes AI as a "productivity multiplier" that not only supports tech sectors, but is increasingly affecting industrial and logistics value chains. Interestingly, it is precisely Europe - not really known as a technology center - that is now benefiting from this. Industrial modernization, which according to Deutsche Bank is leading to increasing capacity utilization and higher production, is encountering precisely those AI and automation solutions that eliminate productivity deficits and create competitive advantages.
The energy industry remains tense, commodity markets are structurally tight and geopolitics are creating additional demand for security of supply. All of this is strengthening cyclical sectors that have been overshadowed for years.
Sources: MarketMap, Chefinvest, UBS, ZKB, Citi Wealth, Deutsche Bank
Status:24.11.2025
The environment for government bonds remains characterized by declining but still present inflationary pressure. At the same time, the major central banks are transitioning from a restrictive to a neutral monetary policy. Yields have fallen slightly in both the USA and Europe, while market participants increasingly expect moderate further interest rate cuts in the coming quarters. US Treasuries remain a key anchor of stability due to their liquidity and attractive real yields. In Europe, Bunds are benefiting from defensive capital flows, while peripheral countries offer higher yields but remain politically more vulnerable. Swiss Confederates remain of high quality, but offer low nominal yields. Overall, government bond duration remains somewhat more attractive again, especially as a hedge against economic downturns and market volatility.
Conclusion: Remain a central anchor of stability in the portfolio with duration becoming more attractive in an environment of moderate interest rate cuts.
The investment grade sector remains resilient. Corporate balance sheets are stable, liquidity buffers are well filled and refinancing conditions remain manageable despite higher capital market costs. Spreads remain at narrow levels, reflecting the robust fundamentals, but at the same time signaling that the additional risk premium is limited. Europe offers slightly more attractive all-in yields compared to the US, while the quality of the issuer environment remains high. IG bonds therefore remain a solid instrument for carry income with manageable risk. In an environment of gentle monetary easing, duration can be tactically increased without unduly increasing risk.
Conclusion: Against this backdrop, IG bonds continue to offer a reliable carry with robust corporate fundamentals and are suitable for defensive core allocation.
The high-yield market continues to struggle with tight spreads, which limits the risk-adjusted return prospects. Although the liquidity of companies in the upper rating segment is decent, the pressure on weaker issuers is increasing. CCC securities in particular have a higher probability of default, while BB securities offer the most attractive risk/return ratio. The US market remains broader and more liquid, while Europe has a more defensive structure but is more susceptible to macroeconomic downturns. Overall, HY bonds continue to make sense only as a selective addition, with a clear focus on quality, short to medium maturities and stable sectors.
Conclusion: HY bonds remain only selectively attractive, with a focus on BB quality, as narrow spreads and rising default risks limit the risk buffer.
Emerging markets continue to benefit from the fact that many of their central banks have started the rate-cutting cycle earlier and thus offer attractive real yields, especially in local currency. Latin America in particular stands out positively, while Asian markets are characterized by strong macro fundamentals but lower yields. EM hard currency bonds remain interesting, but are heavily dependent on the development of the dollar and global risk appetite. Geopolitical uncertainties and commodity price fluctuations remain key risks, but are cushioned by higher carry yields. EM bonds remain a diversifying source of income, but should be deliberately weighted and used with a clear focus on quality countries.
Conclusion: We currently advise investors with a risk appetite to build up this asset class via ETFs or funds.
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: MarketMap, Bloomberg and DWS
Status:24.11.2025
The pair remains strongly characterized by monetary policy divergence. While the ECB is already in a cycle of interest rate cuts due to moderate inflation, the US Federal Reserve remains cautious. The robust US economy is supporting the dollar in the short term, while the interest rate differential should tend to narrow beyond 2025. Sentiment remains data-driven, particularly due to US inflation and geopolitical risks.
Conclusion (12 months): Slightly euro-friendly trend, but trading range remains volatile - expectation: moderately higher EUR, but no clear trend break.
The euro against the Swiss franc mainly reflects SNB policy. Following the SNB's interest rate cuts, the franc has weakened somewhat, but remains structurally strong as Switzerland continues to act as a safe haven. Low inflation allows the SNB to maintain its dovish stance, but geopolitical uncertainties are limiting a sustained depreciation of the CHF.
Conclusion (12 months): Basically sideways, with occasional swings in favor of the franc - expectation: stable range, with a slight CHF bias in periods of stress.
The dollar will remain firm against the franc as long as the Fed remains tighter on monetary policy than the SNB. However, the high level of geopolitical uncertainty regularly ensures safe-haven inflows into the CHF. The pair thus remains a balancing act between interest rate differentials (per USD) and risk aversion (per CHF).
Conclusion (12 months): Trend slightly USD-positive due to the interest rate differential, but repeated setbacks in risk aversion -Expectation: volatile sideways with a slight USD advantage.
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: MarketMap and Bloomberg
Status:24.11.2025
The market remains well supplied and we expect the WTI oil price to move sideways within a range of USD 52 to 64 per barrel over the next few months.
The WTI oil price has weakened slightly in recent weeks within a narrow price range of USD 56 to 62 per barrel and currently stands at USD 58 per barrel.
The additional sanctions against major Russian oil companies and the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have only led to slightly higher oil prices in the short term. For European oil products such as heating oil and diesel, however, the sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil appear to have led to a shortage and higher prices in the short term.
In the coming months, demand is expected to increase due to the stronger global economic growth that is emerging. However, continued high oil production in the USA (currently at 13.83 million barrels of WTI oil per day) and the lifting of the previous production limits in OPEC will ensure sufficient supply.
Sources: OPEC, FuW, MarketMap, International Energy Agency (IEA)
Status: 24.11.2025
Gold remains in a constructive environment. Falling real interest rates due to the expected further Fed cuts are reducing opportunity costs and supporting the precious metal. At the same time, geopolitical risk remains elevated, which once again positions gold as a defensive protective anchor in the portfolio. On the demand side, strong central bank buying continues to dominate, while ETF inflows have stabilized since mid-2025 and signal a cyclical demand comeback. Supply is only growing moderately as few new mines are being created and costs for producers are rising. Investor positioning is not yet stretched, leaving additional scope for capital inflows.
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: Degussa, Reuters and Financial Times.
As of: 24.11.2025
United Kingdom
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