Switzerland
Between stress and relaxation
The tariff reduction will have a noticeably positive impact on the Swiss export economy, although the economic environment is still seen as a challenge. The domestic economy is stabilizing, but only moderate growth is expected for 2026. The Swiss equity market has an average valuation in historical terms and offers an attractive dividend yield of 3.00 %.
In recent months, the Swiss economy has been heavily influenced by the tariff conflict with the USA. The unexpectedly introduced import tariffs of 39% led to a noticeable burden on the export industry. The situation eased considerably in November: the USA reduced the rate to 15 %. This led to relief on the markets, a strengthening of the Swiss franc and an improvement in the competitive position of export-oriented industries. Companies in the luxury goods, medical technology and capital goods sectors, which generate high US sales with added value in Switzerland, will benefit particularly from this development.
Gross domestic product shrank significantly by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2025. This was due to declining figures in the industrial sector, negative net exports and subdued investment activity. Weak demand from key sales markets such as the EU and China and the elimination of earlier pull-forward effects are also having an impact.
The forecasts for 2026 are subdued, albeit without a recession scenario. Private consumption remains stable thanks to low inflation and population growth, and the service sector is also proving resilient. In addition, construction activity is expected to gradually recover due to low interest rates.
SECO economic forecasts
GDP 2025 1.30%
Inflation 2025 0.20%
Leading interest rate 0.00%
Sources: Chefinvest, ZKB, SECO
As of: 24.11.2025